Hormuz may reopen, but the deal is strewn with mines
Oil markets respond to the mechanics of clearance and insurance, not just to diplomatic announcements.
Attention is turning to the Strait of Hormuz. How soon can the strait reopen? How will the mines be cleared? When will oil tankers and supply lines return? Will energy prices fall? And what does the agreement mean for the future of control over the Strait of Hormuz and other global maritime routes?
The memorandum of understanding signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian provides for reopening Hormuz within 30 days. But achieving that goal requires defusing many “negotiation mines” related to clearing mines and munitions, ensuring safe navigation, bringing insurers back and restoring confidence that the strait will not be closed again.
Yet these are only the visible mines in Hormuz. The real mines lie deeper. They are embedded in the agreement itself and could detonate at any moment, shaking the region's foundations.
The nuclear issue mine
The first is Iran’s nuclear file. The agreement did not resolve the problem; it deferred it to later negotiations. Paragraph eight provides for talks on the fate of the enriched uranium stockpile, enrichment mechanisms and international inspections. This is the sticking point: Washington wants the enriched uranium handed over and guarantees that prevent Tehran from approaching the nuclear threshold, while Tehran refuses to give up its right to enrich uranium or hand over its strategic stockpile. This was the issue that derailed the negotiations before the war, and it had taken years of discussion before a detailed agreement was reached in 2015.