Indonesia Must Learn from the War in the Middle East

Prabowo-Gibran yang pencalonannya sebagai Presiden dan Wakil Presiden memantik kontroversi mulai bekerja sejak 20 Oktober 2024.

Prabowo-Gibran, whose candidacy for president and vice president sparked controversy, began their work on October 20, 2024.

Untuk mengawal pemerintahan mereka, kami menerbitkan edisi khusus #PantauPrabowo yang memuat isu-isu penting hasil pemetaan kami bersama TCID Author Network. Edisi ini turut mengevaluasi 10 tahun pemerintahan Joko Widodo, sekaligus menjadi bekal Prabowo-Gibran selama menjalankan tugasnya.

To monitor their administration, we are publishing a special #PantauPrabowo edition containing key issues mapped together with the TCID Author Network. This edition also evaluates the ten years of Joko Widodo's presidency, while serving as a point of reference for Prabowo-Gibran as they carry out their duties.

Since October 7, 2023, tensions in the Middle East have risen as a result of the war between the Axis of Resistance, consisting of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraqi resistance groups, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah, and Israel.

Sejak 7 Oktober 2023, ketegangan di kawasan Timur Tengah meningkat akibat perang antara Poros Perlawanan–yang terdiri dari Republik Islam Iran, kelompok perlawanan Irak, Houthi, di Yaman, dan Hizbullah–melawan Israel.

Although geographically distant, Indonesia appears to need to begin paying closer attention to the potential widening of a conflict escalation that may well affect allied countries even outside the Middle East. Building a military posture, including superiority in weapons technology, is one of the important matters that the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka regime must address.

Meskipun jauh secara geografis, Indonesia tampaknya perlu mulai memberi perhatian lebih akan potensi meluasnya eskalasi konflik yang, mungkin saja, akan memengaruhi negara-negara sekutu meskipun di luar wilayah Timur Tengah. Pembangunan postur militer, termasuk perihal keunggulan teknologi persenjataan, menjadi salah satu hal penting yang perlu dibenahi oleh rezim Prabowo Subianto–Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

Learning from military operations in the Middle EastBelajar dari operasi militer di Timur Tengah

There are at least two crucial things Indonesia can learn from the war now unfolding in the Middle East in order to strengthen its defense: war technology and the function of intelligence.

Setidaknya ada dua hal krusial dalam perang yang sedang terjadi di kawasan Timur Tengah yang bisa dipelajari oleh Indonesia guna memperkuat pertahanan, yakni mengenai teknologi perang dan tentang fungsi intelijen.

First, both the Axis of Resistance and Israel are using the latest military technology. In its Operation True Promise 2 attack on Israel, for example, Iran claimed to have used hypersonic missiles.

Pertama, baik Poros Perlawanan maupun Israel menggunakan teknologi perang terkini. Dalam serangan Operasi True Promise 2 ke Israel, contohnya, Iran mengklaim menggunakan rudal hipersonik.

Although many parties have questioned this claim of hypersonic capability, the fact remains that Israel's anti-ballistic defense systems, such as David's Sling, Arrow-2, and Arrow-3, were unable to intercept hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles. Iran claimed that around 90 percent of its missiles reached vital targets in Israel.

Meskipun klaim mengenai kemampuan hipersonik ini diragukan banyak pihak, faktanya sistem pertahanan antibalistik seperti David Sling, Arrow-2, serta Arrow-3 milik Israel, tidak dapat menghalau ratusan rudal balistik Iran. Pihak Iran mengklaim sekitar 90% rudalnya dapat mencapai sasaran vital di Israel.

Non-state groups such as the Houthis and the Islamic Resistance groups in Iraq also have the capacity to launch ballistic missiles toward Israel. In addition to ballistic missiles, the Axis of Resistance uses various types of drones, such as the Hudhud, Samad, Mirshad, and Shahed, for reconnaissance as well as attacks against Israel.

Kelompok non-negara semacam Houthi dan kelompok Islam Perlawanan di Irak juga memiliki kemampuan meluncurkan rudal balistik ke arah Israel. Selain dengan rudal balistik, Poros Perlawanan menggunakan beragam jenis drone–seperti Hudhud, Samad, Mirshad, dan Shaheed–yang mereka gunakan dalam pengintaian maupun penyerangan terhadap Israel.

Iran, for instance, used a combination of missiles and drones in Operation True Promise 1. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has used Hudhud drones for reconnaissance over Haifa, and Shahed or Mirsad drones to attack military targets in Israel. Using suicide drones, Hezbollah succeeded in targeting the Golani Brigade headquarters, killing four Israeli soldiers and injuring dozens of others.

Iran, misalnya, menggunakan kombinasi rudal dan drone dalam Operasi True Promise 1. Selain itu, Hizbullah mengunakan Drone Hudhud untuk fungsi pengintaian di Haifa, serta drone Shaheed atau Mirsad untuk menyerang target militer di Israel. Dengan menggunakan drone bunuh diri, Hizbullah berhasil menyasar markas Brigade Golani yang menewaskan empat tentara Israel dan mencederai puluhan lainnya.

Israel, for its part, relies on various variants of fighter jets as well as drones to launch airstrikes across multiple areas, including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and even Yemen. Israel uses many types of bombs, including bunker-busting bombs such as the GBU-31(v)3, which have killed several important figures in the Axis of Resistance.

Di lain pihak, Israel mengandalkan beragam varian jet tempur dan juga drone untuk melancarkan serangan udara ke berbagai wilayah termasuk Gaza, Lebanon, Suriah bahkan hingga Yaman. Israel menggunakan berbagai jenis bom, termasuk bom penembus bunker seperti GBU-31(v)3 yang menewaskan sebagian tokoh penting Poros Perlawanan.

Beyond its airstrike capability, Israel is protected by the Iron Dome defense system, which can intercept most short-range missiles of the sort frequently launched by Hamas from Gaza and Hezbollah from Lebanon.

Selain kemampuan serangan udara, Israel dijaga dengan sistem pertahanan Iron Dome yang dapat menangkis sebagian besar rudal jarak pendek seperti yang banyak diluncurkan Hamas dari Gaza maupun Hizbullah dari Lebanon.

Second, the intelligence function is crucial in warfare. Israel is known to possess various intelligence units and to be able to combine human intelligence, signals intelligence, and remote-sensing intelligence to track and strike its targets.

Kedua, fungsi intelijen menjadi hal penting dalam peperangan. Israel dikenal memiliki beragam unit intelijen dan mampu mengombinasikan intelijen manusia, intelijen sinyal, dan intelijen penginderaan jarak jauh untuk melacak dan menyerang targetnya.

One example is the strong indication of Israeli intelligence operations within Hezbollah. This is suggested by Israel's success in discovering Hezbollah's strategy of changing its communications equipment, marketing pagers, planting explosives in thousands of pagers, and detonating those pagers simultaneously to target Hezbollah members. Preparations for such an operation cannot be carried out in a short time.

Sebagai contoh, terdapat indikasi kuat operasi intelijen Israel pada kelompok Hizbullah. Indikasi dari ini ditunjukkan dengan keberhasilan Israel mengetahui strategi pengubahan alat komunikasi Hizbullah, memasarkan pager, menanam bahan peledak ke ribuan pager, serta melakukan peledakan pager secara bersamaan yang menyasar anggota Hizbullah. Persiapan operasi semacam ini tidak dapat dilakukan dalam waktu singkat.

Another indication is the deaths of several key Hezbollah figures in close succession. This suggests that Israel succeeded in determining the locations of Hezbollah's senior leaders and identifying their strategic headquarters. Israel was able to calculate the locations of Hezbollah bases and determine the number and types of bombs needed to strike them.

Indikasi lainnya adalah gugurnya sebagian tokoh kunci Hizbullah dalam waktu yang berdekatan. Peristiwa ini menyiratkan bahwa Israel berhasil mengetahui posisi para petinggi Hizbullah, serta mengidentifikasi markas-markas strategis mereka. Israel dapat mengalkulasi lokasi markas Hizbullah serta menentukan jumlah dan jenis bom untuk menyerang markas Hizbullah.

Technology: an essential factor in warfareTeknologi: faktor esensial dalam peperangan

Superiority in weapons technology is one of the essential factors in building a military posture. Military technologies such as ballistic missiles, fighter jets, drones, and integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) are among the crucial elements of contemporary warfare.

Keunggulan teknologi persenjataan menjadi salah satu faktor esensial bagi pembangunan postur militer. Teknologi perang seperti rudal balistik, jet tempur, drone, dan integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) adalah sebagian elemen krusial dalam perang kontemporer.

A party with limited weapons technology is more vulnerable to attack by others. This can be seen in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, which often become targets of enemy airstrikes because of their limited air-defense systems.

Pihak yang memiliki keterbatasan dalam teknologi persenjataan lebih rentan terhadap serangan dari pihak lain. Hal ini seperti yang terlihat di Gaza, Lebanon, Suriah maupun Yaman yang sering menjadi target serangan udara lawan karena keterbatasan sistem pertahanan udara.

With superior air power, Israeli fighter jets and drones have repeatedly carried out attacks in those territories. On the other hand, Iran's superior ballistic-missile technology has made it difficult for Israeli air defenses to repel ballistic-missile attacks from Iran.

Dengan superioritas kekuatan udara, jet tempur dan drone Israel berulang kali melakukan serangan di wilayah-wilayah tersebut. Di sisi lain, superioritas teknologi rudal balistik Iran telah menyulitkan pertahanan udara Israel untuk menangkal serangan rudal balistik dari Iran.

No less important is the integration of military capability and intelligence capability in warfare. A party that succeeds in maximizing the combination of human intelligence, signals intelligence, and remote-sensing intelligence has a chance to gain the upper hand in battle.

Hal yang tidak kalah penting adalah integrasi kapabilitas militer dan kapabilitas intelijen dalam peperangan. Pihak yang berhasil memaksimalkan kombinasi intelijen manusia, intelijen sinyal, dan intelijen dalam penginderaan jarak jauh berpeluang mencapai keunggulan dalam pertempuran.

The need to build defense equipmentPerlunya membangun alat pertahanan

The conflict taking place in the Middle East can serve as a warning to the Prabowo administration to update military technology immediately in line with the latest developments.

Konflik yang terjadi di Timur Tengah ini dapat menjadi peringatan bagi pemerintahan Prabowo untuk segera memperbarui teknologi militer sesuai perkembangan terbaru.

In the defense sector, for example, Indonesia already possesses short- and medium-range defense systems such as Mistral, Starstreak, and NASAMS 2. Yet to anticipate the trends of contemporary warfare, Indonesia also seems to need to consider procuring anti-ballistic missile defense systems in the future.

Dalam sektor pertahanan, misalnya, Indonesia telah memiliki sistem pertahanan jarak pendek maupun jarak menengah seperti Mistral, Starstreak, dan NASAMS 2. Namun, untuk mengantisipasi tren perang kontemporer, sepertinya Indonesia juga perlu memikirkan pengadaan sistem pertahanan antirudal balistik di masa depan.

From this war, Indonesia also needs to learn about self-reliance in the military industry and technology. We can learn, for instance, from Iran's development of its defense industry. Despite being subject to a range of economic sanctions from the United States and its partners, Iran has achieved self-reliance in military technology and industry, especially in the production of combat drones and ballistic missiles.

Selain itu, dari perang ini, Indonesia juga perlu belajar tentang kemandirian dalam industri dan teknologi militer. Sebagai contoh, kita dapat belajar dari Iran tentang pembangunan industri pertahanan. Pasalnya, meski Iran mendapat beragam sanksi ekonomi dari Amerika Serikat (AS) dan mitranya, namun Iran dapat menciptakan kemandirian di bidang teknologi dan industri militer, khususnya di dalam produksi drone tempur dan rudal balistik.

Strikingly, with that self-reliance, Iran has been able to create a credible deterrent effect against Israel, even though Israel itself is backed by the United States.

Menariknya, dengan kemandirian tersebut, Iran dapat menciptakan efek jera yang kredibel terhadap Israel, padahal Israel sendiri ditopang oleh AS.

In addition, the various military and intelligence operations among the parties involved in the war between the Axis of Resistance and Israel should serve as lessons for Indonesia's military and intelligence institutions.

Selain itu, beragam operasi militer dan intelijen antarpihak yang terlibat dalam perang antara Poros Perlawanan versus Israel, patut menjadi pelajaran bagi militer dan intelijen Indonesia.

Unfortunately, in Indonesia, both the military and intelligence institutions are often the object of considerable criticism. This is because they frequently focus on domestic matters in the civilian sphere that have no connection to defense, international geopolitics, or strategic affairs.

Sayangnya, di Indonesia, institusi militer maupun intelijen Indonesia kerap mendapat banyak kritik. Ini karena mereka sering kali berfokus pada urusan-urusan domestik di ranah sipil yang tidak berhubungan dengan hal terkait pertahanan, geopolitik internasional, maupun urusan strategis.

This tendency can be seen in the phenomenon of many TNI soldiers occupying civilian posts or becoming involved in business activities.

Kecenderungan tersebut dapat dilihat dari fenomena prajurit TNI banyak menduduki jabatan-jabatan sipil maupun terlibat dalam kegiatan bisnis.

In September 2023, former president Joko "Jokowi" Widodo made a blundering statement that his side used intelligence to seek detailed information about political parties. Then, in October 2024, former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono stated that intelligence should be used to spy on enemies of the state, not political opponents.

September 2023 lalu, mantan Presiden Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, membuat pernyataan blunder , bahwa pihaknya menggunakan intelijen untuk mencari informasi detail mengenai partai-partai politik. Lalu pada Oktober 2024, mantan Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono menyatakan bahwa intelijen seharusnya digunakan untuk mematai-matai musuh negara, bukan lawan politik.

Anticipating the potential widening of the warAntisipasi potensi meluasnya perang

The war in the Middle East, which was previously limited to Hamas and Israel, has now involved other parties such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi Resistance groups, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Indeed, U.S. troops have begun moving into Mediterranean waters to help Israel anticipate an Iranian attack. Without sound crisis management, it is not impossible that this war could widen into a war on a larger scale.

Perang di Timur Tengah yang sebelumnya terbatas antara Hamas dan Israel, kini telah melibatkan pihak-pihak lain seperti Hizbullah, Houthi, kelompok Perlawanan Irak, dan Republik Islam Iran. Bahkan, tentara AS mulai bergerak ke wilayah perairan Mediterania untuk membantu Israel mengantisipasi serangan Iran. Tanpa manajemen krisis yang baik, bukan tidak mungkin perang ini meluas menjadi perang dengan skala lebih besar.

The potential escalation toward a broader regional war could have serious effects not only on regional security stability, but also on a wider humanitarian crisis. So far, the war has caused tens of thousands of deaths and waves of displacement.

Potensi eskalasi menuju perang regional yang lebih luas dapat berdampak serius tidak hanya pada stabilitas keamanan regional, tetapi juga berimbas pada krisis kemanusiaan yang lebih luas. Sejauh ini perang telah menimbulkan puluhan ribu korban jiwa dan gelombang pengungsian.

It is therefore important for the Indonesian government to anticipate the potential long-term impacts of this war and to encourage strategic steps toward the gradual easing of tensions.

Karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah Indonesia untuk mengantisipasi potensi dampak jangka panjang dari perang ini serta mendorong langkah-langkah strategis dalam peredaan ketegangan secara bertahap.