Ten years on: What next for UK-EU relations?
This report highlights the ‘stark divide’ between the economic impact of Brexit and the government’s proposed response, and sets out a ‘staircase’ of options for the future relationship.
As we approach the 10 year anniversary of the EU referendum, there is now a broad consensus that Brexit has made the UK economy 2–6% smaller than it would otherwise have been. Yet Labour’s proposed ‘EU reset’ is unlikely to add more than half a percent to UK GDP over fifteen years.
Though the UK is seeking further ‘alignment’ with the EU market to bring greater economic gains, this is unlikely to be on offer from Brussels unless it breaks its manifesto ‘red lines’.
This report report sets out the five alternative options of: 1) a ‘TCA-minus’ Brexit, 2) a customs union, 3) a Swiss-style deal, 4) EEA (single market) membership, and 5) rejoining the EU. Options 2-5 each, in turn, bring greater economic gains, but all come with trade-offs, as shown by UK in a Changing Europe’s new ‘staircase’.