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Egyptians on the Roads of Dangerous Migration

The article argues that Egypt has not stopped irregular migration so much as displaced it westward into longer, deadlier routes through Libya, while leaving untouched the economic and social pressures that drive young people, and increasingly minors, to leave.

المصريون في دروب الهجرة الخطرة
Assafir Al-Arabi · By Islam Deif · 20 August 2026 · read the original in Arabic →

في منتصف أيار/ مايو الماضي، عُثر على قارب مطاطي صغير، يحمل 17 جثة متحللة قبالة سواحل سيدي براني غرب محافظة مطروح. لم تكن هذه الحادثة الأولى، وربما لن تكون الأخيرة، في سلسلة طويلة من المآسي المرتبطة بالهجرة غير النظامية عبر البحر المتوسط. لكن ما يجعلها لافتة أنها جاءت بعد سنوات من إعلان السلطات المصرية، عن نجاحها في وقف انطلاق قوارب الهجرة من السواحل المصرية.

In mid-May of last year, a small rubber boat carrying 17 decomposed bodies was found off the coast of Sidi Barrani, west of Matrouh Governorate. This was not the first incident, and perhaps it will not be the last, in a long chain of tragedies bound up with irregular migration across the Mediterranean. What makes it striking, however, is that it came years after Egyptian authorities had announced their success in stopping migrant boats from setting out from Egypt’s shores.

فعلى مدار العقد الأخير، استند الخطاب الرسمي إلى تراجع رحلات الهجرة المباشِرة من مصر، باعتباره أحد أبرز مؤشرات النجاح في مكافحة الظاهرة. غير أن أرقام الوصول إلى أوروبا، وشهادات الناجين، والحوادث المتكررة على السواحل الليبية والمصرية، تطرح سؤالاً عن حقيقة تراجع الهجرة عبر المتوسط.

For the past decade, official discourse has relied on the decline in direct migration journeys from Egypt as one of the clearest indicators of success in combating the phenomenon. Yet the figures for arrivals in Europe, the testimonies of survivors, and the repeated incidents on the Libyan and Egyptian coasts all raise a question about the reality of this supposed decline in migration across the Mediterranean.

تشير الوقائع إلى أن الطريق لم يُغلق، بل انتقل غرباً. فبدلاً من الإبحار مباشرة من السواحل المصرية، صار آلاف المصريين يعبرون الحدود إلى ليبيا أولاً، ثم ينطلقون من سواحل طبرق ومحيطها نحو اليونان وإيطاليا. وبهذا التغيّر لم تختفِ المخاطر، بل تضاعفت، إذ صار المهاجر يواجه رحلة برية محفوفة بالابتزاز والخطف والاحتجاز داخل ليبيا، قبل أن يواجه مخاطر الغرق في البحر المتوسط.

The facts suggest that the route was not closed; it shifted westward. Instead of sailing directly from the Egyptian coast, thousands of Egyptians now cross the border into Libya first, then set out from the shores of Tobruk and its environs toward Greece and Italy. With this change, the dangers did not disappear; they multiplied. The migrant now faces an overland journey through Libya fraught with extortion, kidnapping, and detention before confronting the risk of drowning in the Mediterranean.

Seen from this angle, the latest tragedy appears to be more than a mere shipwreck. It reflects a transformation in the geography of irregular migration, and compels a reconsideration of policies that have focused on closing maritime exits without addressing the economic and social causes that drive young people to leave in the first place.

From the Direct Sea Route to the Longer Roadمن البحر المباشر إلى الطريق الأطول

The routes of irregular migration from Egypt to Europe have undergone several changes, not only in points of departure but in a complete reconfiguration. From the mid-2000s until before 2016, some villages in the Nile Delta and along the northern coast saw small fishing boats or vessels unfit for long voyages setting out directly from Egyptian shores, taking advantage at the time of weak maritime surveillance, the length of the coastline, and the multiplicity of places where departures could be concealed.

The Irregular Migration of Peasants to Europe, or the End of the Egyptian Village 22-10-2018 Egypt: Women and the Sea 10-10-2018

Despite its danger, the journey was relatively shorter in terms of its direct geographical route, and it often relied on local smugglers working within limited areas inside Egypt, with networks extending into the Mediterranean through intermediaries in Libya or Italy. But this pattern began to recede gradually after a series of major incidents, most notably the sinking of the Rashid boat in 2016, which marked a major political and media turning point. It led the Egyptian state to adopt a more hardline approach to irregular migration: reinforcing the presence of border guards and coast guards, intensifying maritime patrols, and tightening legal penalties through the anti-illegal migration law issued in 2016 and its subsequent amendments, which broadened the criminalization of smuggling and imposed severe penalties on organizers and those involved, in parallel with security campaigns inside coastal villages and traditional migration areas.

For the past decade, official discourse has relied on the decline in direct migration journeys from Egypt as one of the clearest indicators of success in combating the phenomenon. Yet the figures for arrivals in Europe, the testimonies of survivors, and the repeated incidents on the Libyan and Egyptian coasts all raise a question about the reality of this supposed decline in migration across the Mediterranean.

According to the International Organization for Migration, the Mediterranean remains one of the deadliest migration routes in the world, recording more than 3,100 deaths and disappearances in 2023 alone, most of them on the central route linking the Libyan coast to Italy, which is currently the route most used by migrants coming from North and East African countries, including Egypt.

These measures did indeed lead to a marked decline in boats setting out directly from Egypt, something officially promoted as the closure of this file. But this closure did not end the social and economic motives for migration; it redirected them toward more complex alternative routes, foremost among them, and most dangerous, the Libyan route.

This came in the context of Libya’s internal tensions after 2011, the multiplicity of centers of power, and the spread of armed militias and cross-border smuggling networks, which created a parallel economy based on transporting, detaining, and exploiting migrants, including demanding ransom, imposing forced labor, and, in some documented cases in international reports, human trafficking.

Figures of Crossing and Disappearanceأرقام العبور والفقدان

Reports by the same organization also indicate that the number of victims continued to rise in 2025 and early 2026, with hundreds of additional deaths and disappearances recorded in the first months alone, making 2026 one of the bloodiest years since official documentation began in 2014.

In 2025, 17,451 Egyptians reached Europe by irregular means, an increase of nearly 50 percent compared with 2024. The data show that about 52 percent of them arrived via the central Mediterranean route, most through Libya to Italy, while 47 percent arrived via the eastern route to Greece.

“Fortress” Europe Begins in North Africa 16-04-2017"القلعة" أوروبا تبدأ في شمال أفريقيا 16-04-2017

Although total irregular crossings into the European Union fell by 26 percent in 2025, on the central Mediterranean route in particular data from the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, confirm that Egyptians remain among the leading nationalities reaching Europe by this path. There has been increasing reliance on departures from Libya rather than Egypt, with the agency’s reports indicating that more than 90 percent of journeys on this route set out from the Libyan coast, while Egyptians constitute a notable share of the nationalities arriving through it.

As for human losses, according to the International Organization for Migration, at least 1,328 people died or went missing on Mediterranean routes in 2025, including 895 on the very route taken by most Egyptian migrants heading to Europe. The organization confirms that other missing persons may never be officially recorded because entire boats disappear, or because reports and documentation are absent.

Young Ages on the Road to Deathأعمار صغيرة على طريق الموت

One of the most sensitive problems within irregular migration routes from Egypt concerns the changing age structure of migrants, as the presence of minors and children has become more visible on journeys heading to Europe. This shift reflects the phenomenon’s movement from one primarily associated with adults seeking work into a more complex pattern. The presence of children on migration routes is no longer an exception or an individual case; in some instances it has become a family decision in which minors are pushed to the front of the journey, including adolescents no older than fifteen or sixteen, despite the dangers it entails, which may begin in the desert and end at sea, on the assumption that this is a long-term investment in improving income.

Here, the minor does not face only the danger of the sea at the final stage of the journey, but before that passes through a series of harsher dangers on land, including unofficial detention, forced labor, and financial extortion. UNICEF explains that children in this context are classified among the most vulnerable groups, given their exposure to compounded risks during the journey, especially in areas that lack any real legal protection, such as the Libyan desert and unofficial detention centers.

The Egyptian coastal route was not closed; it shifted westward. Instead of sailing directly from it, thousands of Egyptians now cross the border into Libya first, then set out from the shores of Tobruk and its environs toward Greece and Italy. With this change, the dangers did not disappear; they multiplied. The migrant now faces an overland journey through Libya fraught with extortion, kidnapping, and detention before confronting the risk of drowning in the Mediterranean.

Official data cited by the Greek parliament and European migration agencies indicated that Egyptians made up more than 50 percent of all unaccompanied minors registered in some reception centers in Greece alone in recent years. Greece’s deputy migration minister also confirmed that a number of these children are subjected to assault or exploitation inside Libya before reaching Europe, according to testimonies gathered by the authorities from the minors themselves.

Yet their arrival in Europe does not necessarily mean the end of the dangers, but rather the beginning of a complex legal and humanitarian path that does not necessarily guarantee stability. Under the legal framework in force within the European Union, unaccompanied minors are not deported directly; they are treated as an acutely vulnerable group requiring protection, and are granted the right to apply for asylum. But many may remain for years inside reception centers, while a portion of these minors may leave those centers unofficially.

In such cases, conditions move to another level of suffering, as some of them enter the circuits of the informal economy within European states, especially in sectors that rely on unregistered labor, such as agriculture, services, restaurants, and seasonal work. They are therefore among the groups most vulnerable to economic exploitation in these sectors, because of weak legal protection, the length of procedures for regularizing their status, and the urgent need to secure income quickly, which opens the door to employing them outside legal frameworks and, in many cases, under fragile and unsafe working conditions.

Border Management and European Fundingإدارة الحدود والتمويل الأوروبي

The handling of irregular migration between Egypt and the European Union has developed into a system within what is known as extended border management before arrival in Europe. In March 2024, the European Union announced a support package for Egypt worth about 7.4 billion euros through 2027, including 5 billion euros in concessional loans to support macroeconomic stability, 1.8 billion euros in additional investments, and 600 million euros in direct grants, of which nearly 200 million euros was allocated to programs for migration management, combating migrant smuggling, and strengthening border surveillance. This funding does not come within a purely economic framework; it is tied to European priorities that include strengthening law-enforcement capacities, supporting border monitoring systems, and expanding cooperation to prevent irregular departure.

In return, during the same period the Egyptian state adopted a tightened security approach toward irregular migration, based on intensifying security deployment in coastal areas such as Borg Megheizel in Kafr el-Sheikh Governorate, and establishing observation points and camps intended to prevent boats from setting out toward the Mediterranean. These measures led to a clear decline in attempts to sail directly from Egyptian shores, but at the same time they did not end the motives for migration. In this way, migration is not viewed as a human movement connected to deep causes so much as it is managed solely as a security file, its routes controlled by moving the tools of surveillance beyond Europe’s borders.

Between the Danger of Leaving and the Cost of Stayingبين خطر الرحيل وكلفة البقاء

The motives for migration remain tied to a pressing economic and social structure, manifested in limited job opportunities and the widening gap between local wages and expectations of living, which makes migration, for many, an alternative solution resorted to despite its high risks. World Bank estimates indicate that about 1.3 million young people enter Egypt’s labor market every year, while the economy succeeds in providing only a portion of the jobs needed to absorb these numbers, amid rising poverty rates in recent years.

But the employment crisis is not about the number of jobs alone; it is also about their quality. Many young people find themselves in an unstable labor market that depends heavily on temporary or informal jobs lacking social guarantees, insurance, and opportunities for career progression. With purchasing power eroding and living costs rising, work becomes merely a tool for daily survival, without any clear horizon for improving living conditions.

The presence of children in these migrations is no longer an exception or an individual case; in some instances it has become a family decision in which minors are pushed to the front of the journey, including adolescents no older than fifteen or sixteen, despite the dangers it entails, which may begin in the desert and end at sea, on the assumption that this is a long-term investment in improving income.

In a number of villages and areas historically associated with migration, the money sent by migrants over the years has helped provide sources of income for entire families, creating a recurring model that pushes others to take the same road as a high-risk investment, through which the family wagers on one of its members reaching Europe and later beginning to send remittances home.

Added to this is the fact that the image of Europe circulating within migration networks often differs from the reality faced by new arrivals. Information passes through relatives, friends, and social media, highlighting job opportunities more than years of waiting, complex legal procedures, or harsh working conditions. Over time, a perception of risk takes shape that is not based on the magnitude of the danger itself, but on the chances of success attached to it.

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